War, Crisis To Bring About World Federation

EUROPEAN UNION:

The EU Is Marching Toward An Independent And Integrated Military – OpEd

Eurasian Review, March 30, 2024 – At the European Defense Agency’s annual conference in November 2023, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen warned member states from buying too much equipment from abroad and called for a European Defense Union. While the defense union is yet to materialize, the first-ever European Defense Industrial Strategy signed in early March 2024 marked another significant step toward achieving European Union (EU) military autonomy by focusing on improving European weapons manufacturing.
‘MADE IN EU’: HOW EUROPE CAN USE TARIFFS AS AN INDUSTRIAL STRATEGY
Europe would need to increase tariffs to at least 20% by 2027 to close the average cost gap with China (likely more, something the investigation should look into). Unlike solar, Europe should act preemptively before it is too late. This should be accompanied by stronger “Made in EU” requirements in public tenders, subsidies and EU grants and loans given to EV and battery makers.
ROMANIA AND BULGARIA PARTIALLY JOIN EUROPE’S SCHENGEN TRAVEL ZONE, BUT CHECKS AND LAND BORDERS REMAIN
WTWO News | Associated Press, March 31, 2024 – Romania and Bulgaria partially joined Europe’s ID-check-free travel zone on Sunday, marking a new step in the two countries’ integration with the European Union.
After years of negotiations to join the Schengen area, there is now free access for travelers arriving by air or sea from both countries. However, land border checks will remain in place due to opposition primarily from Austria which has long blocked their bid over illegal migration concerns.

REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE – ARAB GULF, GCC:

Gulf Railway project to connect six Middle Eastern nations by 2030

Urban Transport News, March 29, 2024 – With an estimated cost of 197 billion Euros, this monumental initiative is poised to become the second-largest construction project globally, following NEOM….
As the Gulf Railway Project gains momentum, it promises to revolutionize connectivity across the Middle East, fostering economic prosperity and facilitating seamless movement of goods and people within the region.
GCC VISION FOR REGIONAL SECURITY UNVEILED FOR THE FIRST TIME
Arab News, March 28, 2024 – On Thursday, the Gulf Cooperation Council unveiled its vision for regional security for the first time in its 43-year history….
The starting point of the vision is the centrality of the GCC to any regional security framework and of collective defense — that the security of GCC states is indivisible….
In addition, GCC states play a pivotal role, when requested, in supporting the security of neighboring countries, and their political and economic stability.

‘ASEAN, Japan Should Grow Together as Equals’

Need to create a ‘West Pacific supply chain’

JAPAN ACHIEVED SUCCESS AS ‘FAR WESTERN NATION,’ NOT AS ‘FAR EASTERN’
The Japan News, March 22, 2024 – Where does ASEAN’s strength come from? It groups 10 Southeast Asian countries covering a combined 4.5 million square kilometers, or 3.2% of the world’s land area, and is home to 680 million people, equal to 8.5% of the global population. Its total gross domestic product is on par with that of either Germany or Japan, the world’s third- and fourth-largest economies….China began taking advantage of its continent-like sway, given the geographical and demographic size of the country. It established its own supply chains, intensifying trade friction with other countries.
Asia is now seeing more and more supply chains. These need to be reorganized and strengthened to create a West Pacific supply chain that links South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand….
Japan paved a path to growth as “a Far Western nation.” It did not achieve its success as a Far Eastern nation collaborating with countries on the Asian continent.

EURASIA, CHINA:

Turn to the East: New trade routes between Eurasia and China

Asia News, March 22, 2024 – The most impressive turning point is certainly that of Russia, which has seen the doors of European markets closed, consequently impacting China. According to the Chinese customs office, trade between Moscow and Beijing increased by 26%, up to 240 billion dollars compared to 190 in 2022….
In any case, all the routes start and return to China, and then involve other major players in the international game of roles, such as India, Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, and also the European and American “antagonists”, who having to distance themselves from Russia, they are in turn attracted to the more accessible destinations in Asia.

CRACK IN THE BRICS?

India Ditches BRICS Countries, Buys More U.S. Oil

Watcher Guru, March 22, 2024 – The Modi-led government made use of the sanctions and purchased oil at discounted prices with its BRICS counterpart Russia. However, Russia demanded India settle oil payments in the Chinese Yuan only and not the Indian Rupee. The demand did not go down well with India, as the country remains at loggerheads with China…. India now took a U-turn and is buying more oil from the U.S. than its BRICS counterpart Russia, reported Bloomberg.
36 COUNTRIES APPLY TO JOIN BRICS ALLIANCE IN 2024
Watcher Guru, March 21, 2024 – BRICS expansion will not be an easy task as the existing members decide about the induction. All countries have to meet a set of criteria to be allowed entry into the alliance. Among the 36 countries, only a few might receive invitations to join the BRICS alliance in 2024.

GCC, ARAB LEAGUE:

Arab world has already left unipolarity and hegemony behind

Global Times, March 21, 2024 – The Arab world, as a trading bloc, is India’s largest partner and one of China’s most important partners. The UAE and Saudi Arabia, for example, send more than a third of their crude oil exports to China and India, while the Arab world provides around 45 percent of China’s crude imports and 60 percent of India’s….US officials’ demands and expectations that the Arabs restrict relations with the Chinese are not only unrealistic and presumptuous, but also unacceptable. The region has changed, the world has changed, and therefore the old, outdated dogmas of a past era should also change.The Arabs have already left unipolarity and hegemony behind. They are now in charge of their own destiny. They are busy building their future based on a new paradigm that focuses mainly on indigenous capacity building, diverse strategic partnerships and comprehensive regional development and integration.
TURKEY AND GULF STATES TO LAUNCH TALKS FOR FREE TRADE PACT
Reuters, March 21, 2024 – After years of tension, Turkey launched a diplomatic charm offensive in 2020 to mend ties with Gulf countries, namely the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia….
As ties have improved, Gulf Arab nations are looking to Turkey for help developing local industries and technology transfer in their ambitious effort to diversify their economies away from oil.

USMCA – ‘MADE IN NORTH AMERICA’:

Trump threatens a 100% tariff on Chinese cars made in Mexico

Mexico News Daily, March 19, 2024 – Cars manufactured in Mexico by Chinese companies could be subject to a hefty import tariff in the United States if Donald Trump succeeds in his bid to return to the White House….
“Those big monster car manufacturing plants you are building in Mexico right now and you think you are going to … not hire Americans and you’re going to sell the car to us, no. We are going to put a 100% tariff on every car that comes across the lot,” Trump said.
Top electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer BYD and Jaecoo are among the Chinese automakers that have recently announced plans to open plants in Mexico. BYD Americas CEO Stella Li said last month that the company’s plan was to “build the facility for the Mexican market, not for the export market.”
However, many observers believe that Chinese automakers’ main motivation for establishing manufacturing capacity in Mexico is to export to the United States from a country that both neighbors the world’s largest economy and has a free trade agreement with it….
Vehicles made in Mexico are currently not subject to tariffs when exported to the United States provided they comply with regional content and labor rules specified in the USMCA, the North America free trade pact that superseded NAFTA in 2020….
TRENDS AND OPPORTUNITIES IN MEXICO-US PHARMA TRADE
EXTEND ‘MADE IN AMERICA’ STATUS TO MEXICAN-MADE PHARMACEUTICALS
Conversations about supply chain resilience are often dominated by critical minerals and semiconductors. But the US also suffers from persistent shortages in another important sector: pharmaceuticals….
The Mexican pharmaceutical industry has the potential to fill vital gaps in the US market…. One problem is lack of regulatory harmonization….
Easing the regulatory burden does not mean reducing standards—it means harmonizing them across the region…. Steps toward greater harmonization may involve building a pre-certification process into USMCA during the upcoming review in 2026. Extending a “Made in America” status to Mexican-made pharmaceuticals would significantly reduce barriers to entry….

UNASUR, CELAC:

At CELAC, Lula extols the potential of Latin Americans and Caribbeans as an integrated bloc

GOV.BR, March 5, 2024 – “If we speak as a region, our chances to influence the great current debates increases. If we work together, we will create synergies that will strengthen our individual development projects,” [Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva] summarized.

Australia engages with the ASEAN it has and works towards the ASEAN the region needs

East Asia Forum, March 4, 2024 – While Australia’s relationship with ASEAN seeks among other things to counterbalance China, it should recognise the bloc’s potential as the foundation of a future-proofed regional architecture which, in defending a free and open global economy, can ensure the sustainable prosperity of the region in the face of rising global political and economic fragmentation….Such an architecture would embrace a comprehensive conception of regional security interests and the multilateralist principles upon which deep economic interdependence and regional prosperity, including that of Australia, have been built.

EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION:

Russia’s Asia Pivot Meets With Iran’s Eurasian Tilt

Jamestown Foundation | Eurasia Daily Monitor, Feb 28, 2024 – Iran had been cautious about transferring ballistic missiles to Russia, fearing backlash from the United States and Europe. Tehran has traditionally navigated its differences with the European Union and the United States, which have stressed the snapback mechanism, which would re-impose UN sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Since the UN arms embargo on Iran expired in October 2023, Iran can now legally supply missiles to Russia….
The expanding military cooperation is part of a broader geopolitical alignment between Iran and Russia. In December 2023, Tehran finalized a long-anticipated free trade agreement with the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) (EAEU, December 25, 2023)….
This agreement is likely linked to the expanding International North-South Transport Corridor, which runs from Russia’s ports to Iran’s major urban centers in the western part of the country and various ports in the Persian Gulf.

USMCA – ‘MADE IN NORTH AMERICA’:

A potential Trump win has companies already planning for Chinese tariffs and a new trade war

Shift from China to Mexico as key import gateway to avoid tariffs

CHINESE COMPANIES SETTING UP SHOP IN MEXICO OR USING MEXICAN PORTS
CNBC, March 11, 2024 – Global logistics companies tell CNBC they have started the planning for a potential Trump win in November and the strategies that will be needed to mitigate any additional tariffs, with Mexico a key import gateway for any escalation in the trade war against China begun under Trump and continued during the Biden presidency….
[Niki Frank, CEO OF DHL Asia] expects any increase in tariffs during a second Trump presidency to lead to a greater shift in trade from China to Mexico to avoid the tariffs. That’s already happening, with 15% of China’s trade bound for the United States crossing the Mexican border as a result of Chinese companies setting up shop in Mexico or using Mexican ports.
A TRUMP WIN IN 2024 PUTS THE USMCA TRADE DEAL ON THIN ICE: ANALYST
Yahoo! Finance, March 11, 2024 – The London-based research firm says the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade pact, struck during Trump’s presidency in 2019, could become an early casualty of a second administration led by the current Republican frontrunner.
“We are not convinced by the idea that Trump would stick with the USMCA simply because he negotiated it,” Capital Economics deputy North America economist Stephen Brown stated in a report. “If he wins the election, Trump might bring up the USMCA immediately, given tensions with Mexico over the southern border.”
As North American Manufacturing Surges, Who Wins?
Supply Chain Brain, March 8, 2024 – The big technology winners right now are artificial intelligence, automation and robotics.
‘North America needs USMCA now more than ever’
Brookings, March 6, 2024 – Realizing the full potential of the USMCA also requires us to ensure North America has the necessary infrastructure in place. This includes both an integrated transportation network to support continental supply and value chains and trade-enabling infrastructure to allow goods and services produced in North America to be exported to global markets.

‘MADE IN EUROPE’:

What is the point of “AI made in Europe”?

LSE (London), March 7, 2024 – For years now, EU policy has emphasised the need for digital sovereignty, including in relation to artificial intelligence. If this line of thinking needed any additional boost, Donald Trump’s open disdain for NATO has provided it. Even before then, though, the ambition to have Europe stand on its own AI feet – a policy goal that could be called “AI sovereignty” – already pervaded EU Commission strategy….If anything, Europe needs to accelerate the rollout of AI throughout society to allow it to make up lost ground vis-à-vis the US and China.

‘NORTH AMERICA IN A REGIONALIZED WORLD’:

Harsh times? North America, geopolitics, and the new energy map

‘IT IS TIME TO RETURN TO ROBERT PASTOR’S NORTH AMERICAN IDEA’

‘To consolidate North America as the most competitive region in the world
Brookings, March 6, 2024 – On the financial side, the North American Development Bank (NADBank) could prove to be a suitable funding mechanism for the development of transnational energy infrastructure projects in the three countries….Federal and local governments, private companies, academia, as well as NGOs, all have a role to play in the development of a coherent North American vision…to consolidate North America as the most competitive region in the world ahead of the EU and Asia-Pacific. Mexico should be the champion of this idea since regionalization offers the country a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to trigger higher growth levels and develop the country’s worse-off regions, especially south/southeastern states, which could for the first time integrate into North American supply chains.

FROM THE ARCHIVES: THE NORTH AMERICAN IDEA: A VISION OF A CONTINENTAL FUTURE
Robert A. Pastor (Oxford University Press, 2011)      Reviewed by Richard Feinberg, Foreign Affairs (Council on Foreign Relations), Nov.-Dec. 2011 – Public opinion polls suggest that the citizens of Canada, Mexico, and the United States are ready for greater regional cooperation. To deflect “sovereignty-zealots” and other myopic opponents of broader integration, Pastor calls on leaders to articulate a hopeful vision of integration while making practical progress on immediate problems. His book constitutes a brave master plan…                                                  

FOLLOW THE CURRENCIES:

Towards Financial Independence: BRICS Eyes Settlements in National Currencies

For possible unification of both digital currencies from central banks and national systems

Daily Sun (Bangladesh) | Sputnik, March 1, 2024 – ….Additionally, [Russian Deputy Finance Minister Ivan Chebeskov] reiterated that the Russian Finance Ministry favors the creation of a unified digital platform, a kind of technological gateway for the possible unification of both digital currencies from central banks and national systems of financial messaging.
RUSSIA HINTS DEVELOPMENT OF CBDC-BASED BRICS BRIDGE PAYMENTS SYSTEM
To address fragmentation of current ‘financial, settlement and payment system’
Bitcoin.cm, Feb 27, 2024 – Russia is prepared to introduce the use of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) as tools to facilitate payments among countries of the BRICS, bloc….
[Russian Fanance Minister Anton Siluanov] added that the bloc was ready to start testing this system with countries wishing to connect their financial system with BRICS nations. “Perhaps with China, perhaps with our neighbors in the EAEU (Eurasian Economic Union), with the countries of the Persian Gulf”….
Russia is currently testing the digital ruble, its CBDC…. China has already launched the digital yuan….

CENTRAL-SOUTH ASIA:

Taliban announces readiness to begin work on Afghan portion of TAPI gas pipeline project

Pipeline Technology Journal, Feb 29, 2024 – The Taliban has announced its readiness to begin construction on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline project, Daryo reported on February 28, citing a report by Etilaatroz…. Originally launched in 2016 with a planned completion date of 2019, the project faced delays due to various challenges, including difficulties related to Afghanistan fulfilling its commitments and the resurgence of the Taliban in the region.
TURKMENISTAN, PAKISTAN FORGE AHEAD ON TAPI GAS PIPELINE
BNN, Feb 29, 2024 – In a significant stride towards bolstering regional energy cooperation, Turkmenistan and Pakistan have recently underscored their commitment to the Turkmenistan – Afghanistan – Pakistan – India (TAPI) gas pipeline project.
TALIBAN READY TO START WORK ON LONG-AWAITED TAPI GAS PIPELINE
ETV Bharat, Feb 28, 2024 – In what will be a matter of relief for India, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan has decided to start practical work on the ambitious but long-delayed Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline.

NORTH AMERICA:

Mexico offers attractive alternative for manufacturers exiting China

Yahoo! Finance, Feb 27, 2024 – After experiencing serious port inefficiencies, long coronavirus-related shutdowns and an increasing loss of labor in China, a broad range of manufacturers have committed to moving their facilities away from the country. Many of these companies hope to bring their factories closer to their U.S.-based end consumers, reducing supply chain friction. The right combination of proximity and price makes Mexico an attractive choice for these manufacturers.

EUROPEAN UNION:

Ursula von der Leyen’s Second Term: Toward an Autocratic European Union?

Incumbent EU president has big plans for centralizing power at Brussels.

American Conservative, Feb 27, 2024 – As the dust settles on her first term, it becomes increasingly evident that von der Leyen is steering the EU toward a perilous path—one marked by autocracy, federalism, and a growing detachment from the democratic roots that underpin the European project. The specter of an unelected political elite dictating the fate of member states looms large, casting shadows over the notion of a united Europe built on the principles of collaboration and shared sovereignty.

AFRICAN UNION:

Can the AU’s “Common African Defence and Security Policy” Provide a Pan-African Solution to the Continent’s Security Challenges?

Coordinating defense, security efforts of African states

On February 28, 2004, during the second extraordinary session of the African Union in Sirte, Libya, the continental body adopted the Common African Defence and Security Policy (CADSP), which set out to consolidate a continental architecture capable of advancing peace and security by addressing domestic and foreign threats….
The CADSP complements the Peace and Security Council (PSC) protocol in serving as a critical continental framework to enhance collective security by coordinating the defense and security efforts of African states.
OPERATIONAL PHASE OF THE AFRICAN CONTINENTAL FREE TRADE AREA LAUNCHED
Feb 29, 2024 – The 12th Extraordinary summit of the African Union which was held in Niamey on the 7th of July 2019 was a momentous occasion for Africa, as it saw the successful launching of the operational phase of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)…. The AfCFTA will be the largest free trade area since the formation of the World Trade Organisation.
PS CONFIRMS PLAN TO TRANSFOM EAC INTO A POLITICAL CONFEDERATION WITH ONE CONSTITUTION
Kenyans.co.ke, Feb 27, 2024 – The East African Community (EAC) Affairs Principle Secretary (PS) Abdi Dubat has revealed that a plan is underway to transform the East African Community states into a political confederation….
The East African Community (EAC) is a regional intergovernmental organisation with seven member states which include Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Kenya, and Rwanda. Others are South Sudan, Uganda, and Tanzania which hosts EAC headquarters.

ARAB LEAGUE:

Arab League urges expediting pan-Arab transit agreement

Strengthening economic ties among member states of The Greater Arab Free Trade Area
Kuwait News Agency, Feb 28, 2024

SOUTH ASIA:

New BIMSTEC secretary general sets vision for regional cooperation

The Business Standard, Feb 26, 2024 – BIMSTEC comprises India, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, and Thailand, totalling 1.73 billion people with a combined GDP of USD 5.2 trillion, as per available data from 2023….
Comparing BIMSTEC with ASEAN and EU, Pandey noted the differences in their founding years and highlighted ongoing efforts by BIMSTEC countries, including developing a master plan for grid connectivity to facilitate power transmission.

EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION:

A Leap Forward: Putin Ratifies Economic Zones Agreement to Boost Eurasian Integration

BNN, Feb 26, 2024 – Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval of an agreement to create free economic zones in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) marks a significant stride towards economic collaboration and integration within the region…. This legal framework is designed to ensure that the operation of these zones is in harmony with the broader objectives of the EAEU, aiming to create a seamless economic space where goods, services, and people can move freely.

NORTH AMERICA:

US manufacturers urge government to restrict Chinese auto imports from Mexico

Republic World, Feb 24, 2024 – A US manufacturing advocacy group has called for the US government to block the import of low-cost Chinese automobiles and parts from Mexico…. Highlighting the preferential treatment under the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement and the $7,500 electric vehicle tax credit, the group advocated for measures to prevent Chinese-backed companies operating in Mexico from benefiting from North American trade agreements.
LOGISTICS PLAYERS EXPAND OPERATIONS AS NEAR-SHORING BOOSTS US-MEXICO TRAFFIC
The Loadstar, Feb 23, 2024 – Over 80% of Ryder’s moves across the Mexican border happen at Laredo, which replaced the port of Los Angeles as the biggest international gateway for US imports last year. The logistics and trucking firm handles about 250,000 movements a year across the border.

NORTH AMERICA:

Now is the time to embrace Canada for an integrated North American semiconductor supply chain

DigiTimes Asia, Feb 16, 2024 – Huge potential awaits Taiwan companies to partner and collaborate with Canada’s best semiconductor resources. However, if they do not, they will miss an important window of opportunity. Canada is recalibrating its semiconductor industry and is in active discussions with the Governments of the US and Mexico to establish a new trade pact focusing on an integrated North American semiconductor supply chain.
THE FUTURE OF SEMICONDUCTOR CHIP MANUFACTURING: NORTH AMERICA’S OPPORTUNITY WITH MEXICO
Forbes, Feb 14, 2024 – With the United States taking the initiative with the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, there is a growing focus on bringing chip manufacturing back to North America, specifically to regions like Arizona and Texas. Mexico can leverage this opportunity and offer support services to the chip manufacturing activities on the U.S. side of the border.China’s increased manufacturing presence in Mexico comes as its direct exports to the US have fallen to their lowest since 2010.
ELON MUSK IS INVITING CHINESE EV CAR PARTS MAKERS TO MEXICO TO SUPPLY HIS BIG TESLA FACTORY PLANNED THERE, AND WASHINGTON IS FREAKING OUT
Electric vehicles assembled in Mexico can also qualify for a US Forbes, Feb 14, 2024 – consumer tax credit of as much as $7,500 under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, President Joe Biden’s signature climate law. To do so, they must adhere to strict limits on the amount of battery materials coming from “foreign entities of concern,” or firms with ties to rival countries such as China. Chinese companies that are “in a big hurry to get established to become suppliers” to western car manufacturers are opening shelter companies under Mexican business guidelines…
MEXICO’S RISING EXPORTS TO U.S. REFLECT NEARSHORING MOMENTUM
‘It’s not about deglobalization. It’s the next stage of globalization that is focused on regional networks.’Inc., Feb 8, 2024 – Many Chinese goods still face Trump-era tariffs, a factor influencing U.S. companies to reduce their reliance on suppliers there and finding alternatives closer to home.
Wednesday’s trade figures are a result of the strategic nearshoring shift…. Thanks to the shorter distances involved, supply chains that fed massive China-U.S. trade that suffered enormous disruption during and after the pandemic have been shortened and reinforced in Mexico-U.S. networks.

GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL:

Is the Axis of Resistance gaining support in the GCC?

GCC nationals continue to see Hezbollah in negative, sectarian light

The Cradle, Feb 5, 2024 – As counter-revolutionary states, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain’s rulers have perceived groups such as Hamas, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and Yemen’s Ansarallah as entities that dangerously challenge the regional status quo, particularly the dominance of its western imperium….
Within the GCC, Saudi Arabia and the UAE would be most worried about growing sympathy, or even outright support, for Hamas among Arabs in the Persian Gulf. Yet, Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are not on the same page when it comes to engaging the Palestinian resistance group. Moreover, their perspectives on the changing attitudes of GCC nationals toward Hamas are different. The UAE is rigidly opposed to Hamas for being an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood and other ideological reasons. Abu Dhabi “is not willing to entertain any kind of Islamist movement,” Aziz Alghashian, a fellow at Lancaster University in Britain, tells The Cradle. However, Saudi Arabia is a “bit more pragmatic,” and Riyadh, despite not accepting Hamas, recognizes the group as an “inevitable part of the Palestinian issue.”
“It is possible that this evolving scene will witness initiatives aimed at confronting the popularity of Hamas, like bolstering anti-Brotherhood Salafist factions or nationalist movements,” he adds….

NORTH AMERICA:

The US is now buying more from Mexico than China for the first time in 20 years

Business Insider, Feb 9, 2024 – Some of the decline in imported Chinese goods could be due to the Trump administration’s tariffs in 2018, which made these products more expensive for Americans. The Biden administration has continued pushing companies to “reshore” by returning manufacturing to the US or “friend-shore” to trade with allies. Trade has fallen with China for high tariff items, while it has grown for items without tariffs, The New York Times reported.
CANADA SURPASSES CHINA TO LEAD GLOBAL LITHIUM-ION BATTERY CHAIN RANKINGS
Big winner of ‘friendshoring’ ambitions of Inflation Reduction Act
Small Caps Australia, Feb 9, 2024 – For the first time, Canada has raced past China for the top spot in BloombergNEF’s (BNEF’s) global lithium-ion battery supply chain ranking.
Backed by a surge in lithium exploration and powerful government support, Canada’s consistent manufacturing and production advances, along with its strong ESG credentials have helped it become a leader in forming the battery supply chains of the future….
According to the BNEF, strong integration with the US automotive sector means Canada is also a big winner of the ‘friendshoring’ ambitions of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA)….
CANADA NICKEL LOOKING FOR GOVERNMENT FUNDING, PARTNERS TO BUILD EV SUPPLY CHAIN PLANTS
Would be North America’s largest once completed
Financial Post (Canada), Feb 8, 2024 – Toronto-based Canada Nickel Company Inc. says it plans to build North America’s largest nickel processing facility, along with a steel production plant, in northeastern Ontario to help fill “a key gap” in the electric-vehicle supply chain.

SOUTH ASIA:

Is SAARC Dead?

‘South Asia remains the least integrated region of the world’

Arab News (Pakistan), Feb 3, 2024 – India seems to have given up on SAARC. Perhaps, so has Pakistan. New Delhi is currently pursuing sub-regional initiatives, namely, BIMSTCH (Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation) whose members are Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. The other is BBIN Initiative with Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal as its members.
Similarly Pakistan, knowing that relations with India are somewhat an intractable variable, is also more focused on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), as well as exploring trade and economic possibilities with Central Asia through Afghanistan. Pakistan would also like to see the 10-member Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) more active and result-oriented.

FROM THE ARCHIVES:

THE REGION-BUILDING FUTILITY OF SAARC

EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION:

Armenia PM: Our citizens should feel benefits of free movement of goods, workforce within EAEU

NEWS.am (Armenia), Feb 2, 2024 – “Along with deciphering the benefits and advantages for business, the citizens of our countries should feel also the practical benefits of the free movement of goods, services, and workforce being implemented in the EAEU,” said the premier of Armenia.
KAZAKH PM PROPOSES TO CREATE EURASIAN DIGITAL PLATFORM
Astana Times, Feb 2, 2024 – Kazakh Prime Minister Alikhan Smailov proposed the idea to create a digital platform for the exchange of technological solutions, patents, and innovative ideas between the Eurasian countries….
“The EAEU is located at the crossroads of East and West, North and South, and it has always been a competitive advantage of our region. Major infrastructure projects have been launched, such as the logistics center in Lianyungang, the Khorgos dry port, the Western Europe – Western China transit highway, the railway corridor from China to Iran, the modernization of the Caspian sea ports Kuryk and Aktau,” he said….
Recalling the challenges of time-consuming work with documents in paper form, Smailov noted that “today’s digitalization has optimized all these processes and more than 90% of public services are now digitized in Kazakhstan.”
BELARUS ECONOMY, PARTNERSHIP WITH EAEU COUNTRIES DEVELOP DESPITE WESTERN SANCTIONS
BelTA, Feb 2, 2024 – The Belarusian economy and Belarus’ partnership with countries of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) develop actively despite the pressure of sanctions. Prime Minister of Belarus Roman Golovchenko made the statement at a session of the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council, BelTA has learned.
Roman Golovchenko said: Belarus’ trade turnover with EAEU countries rose by 7.4% in January-November 2023. Despite prophecies of our ‘well-wishers’ Belarus’ GDP growth rate amounted to 103.9% in 2023. The main driver of the economy was the manufacturing sector, which expanded by 7.7%
REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE: EAEU PRIME MINISTERS APPROVE EXPANSION OF TRANSPORT PROJECTS FOR REGIONAL CONNECTIVITY
World Echo (Pakistan), Feb 2, 2024 – The heads of government of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries have approved the expansion of the list of priority integration infrastructure projects in transport to bolster regional connectivity and infrastructure development….
The priority integration infrastructure projects outlined in this expansion encompass large-scale initiatives aimed at modernizing and constructing road and railway communication routes.
USE OF NATONAL CURRENCIES IN MUTUAL SETTLEMENTS IN EAEU REACHES 90%
BelTA, Feb 2, 2024 – The share of national currencies in mutual settlements of the EAEU countries has reached 90% and should further increase, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin said at the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council meeting in Almaty, Kazakhstan on 2 February, BelTA has learned….
“[The Eurasian Economic Way] envisages the expansion of areas of cooperation. This pertains, for example, to the climate agenda, the application of artificial intelligence systems, electronic commerce, as well as the formation of a common financial market and increasing the share of national currencies in mutual settlements, which has already reached 90% and continues to grow,” Mikhail Mishustin said.

SOUTH AMERICA – UANSUR, MERCOSUR

Unasur is in the process of reactivation since the ‘boycott’ in 2018 by the Lima Group

‘New Unasur headquarters could be in the coming months of this year’

La Razón (Bolivia), Jan 31, 2024 – The legal representative of the Union of South American Nations (Unasur), Elvis José Urbina, reported that the regional bloc is in a stage of reactivation and revitalization after having suffered a “boycott” by the Lima Group in 2018.
“In 2019 (during the government of Evo Morales) when Bolivia was going to hand over the succession to the presidency, the government of (Jair) Bolsonaro refused to take over.”
“It is already a stage passed, we are in a revitalization process,” he added.
He reported that there were already two first meetings in December under the leadership of Brazil as pro tempore presidency.
EU-MERCOSUR TRADE DEAL TOTTERS AS EUROPE’S FARMERS REVOLT
Growing farmer protests in Europe and opposition from France have hit prospects for a free-trade deal between the European Union and Mercosur that’s been under negotiation for nearly a quarter of a century.
“The conditions required to conclude negotiations with Mercosur are not quite there yet,” acknowledged European Commission spokesman Eric Mamer.
But talks are continuing with the South American trade bloc made up of Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay, he added.

AFRICAN UNION – ECOWAS:

After the coups, West Africa’s Brexit moment

NPR, Jan 31, 2024 – Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, three countries ruled by military juntas, overwhelmed by jihadist insurgencies and a series of coups in recent years, have severed ties with regional West African countries this week, and quit the regional bloc called ECOWAS. [Economic Community of West African States]….
For several months, the three countries remained defiant, faced by a siege of sanctions and diplomatic pressure from ECOWAS, backed by France and the US, to transition back to democracy.
But the tensions have now led to a split that some experts have compared to “Brexit”, when the United Kingdom left the European Union, because of the profound implications for millions of people across the region.

ARAB LEAGUE, ARAB GULF:

Many Arab governments would like to see Hamas gone

LiveMint.com | The Economist, Jan 30, 2024 – Many Gulf states, for example, would like Israel to get rid of Hamas, even as they fear that doing so will awaken extremism in their own countries. They want to see Iran’s “axis of resistance” of proxy militias wounded, but worry about being caught in the crossfire. For several years they have promoted the narrative of a new Middle East, focused on economics rather than ideology. They fret that a long war in Gaza will upset such plans.

BRICS Meeting: Iran Pushes for Common Currency — China, Russia Prioritize Settlements in Local Currencies

Bitcoin.com, Jan 30, 2024 – The first BRICS sherpa meeting for 2024 under the chairmanship of Russia commenced on Tuesday in Moscow, with participation from 10 member states for the first time….
Last year, there were reports that the BRICS economic bloc was planning to create a common currency. However, at the group’s leaders summit in August last year in Johannesburg, South Africa, the BRICS nations pushed for the use of national currencies to reduce reliance on the the U.S. dollar, instead of discussing a common currency.

NORTH AMERICA: ‘FREE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE’

25 States Now Stand with Texas Governor Abbott – Sign Letter Supporting Texas’ Constitutional Right to Self-Defense

Gateway Pundit, Jan 25, 2024 – This move comes in the wake of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision allowing the removal of razor wire installed by Texas at the border….
Governor Abbott, in a fiery statement, lambasted Joe Biden for failing to enforce immigration laws and thereby violating his oath of office. He then declared an “invasion” under Article I, § 10, Clause 3, asserting Texas’s right to self-defense.
25 Republican governors signed on to a joint statement in support of Governor Abbott.
The list includes:

REGIONAL ID ‘SOLUTIONS’:

Eastern Caribbean countries mull regional biometric ID to facilitate free movement

‘FREE MOVEMENT OF PERSONS REGIME’ TO FURTHER INTEGRATION OF REGIONAL BLOC
Biometric Update, Jan 24, 2024 – Stakeholder country consultations have been ongoing within the Organization of Eastern Caribbean States (OECS), an 11-member regional grouping, on a wide range of initiatives…. to facilitate hassle-free travel by ensuring OECS citizens can move within the Eastern Caribbean Economic Union (ECEU)….
There are regional ID card initiatives in other parts of the world such as the ECOWAS National Biometric ID Card (ENBIC) in West Africa which aims to eliminate travel hurdles related to identity, as well as to drive up the level of economic and social integration among the 15 member countries of the regional bloc.
MIGRATION: THIS TIME IT’S DIFFERENT
52,00 from China FY2023
Wilson Center, Jan 23, 2024 – Many Americans have long assumed that nearly all undocumented migrants reaching the US were Mexican….
But in recent years, migrants are increasingly coming from much further afield…. Even more striking is that countries thousands of miles from the border are beginning to contribute material numbers of migrants. In the recent 7,000-person-plus migrant caravan making its way across Mexico, individuals claimed to hail from 24 different countries, including Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Cameroon.
The number of asylum seekers from China has also been trending upward since February 2023, with more than 52,000 recorded encounters in FY2023….

EAC’s REGIONAL COURT:

Kenya questions jurisdiction of Arusha-based East African Court of Justice

REGIONAL COURT vs. NATIONAL SOVEREIGNTY:
The Citizen (Tanzania), Jan 23, 2024 – Kenya’s Attorney General Justin Muturi on Tuesday pleaded with the Supreme Court to hear his application seeking the top court’s opinion on the legal consequences and effects of decisions of the East African Court of Justice (EACJ) on the country’s sovereignty.
Mr. Muturi said … there is no express provision in the East African Community (EAC) Treaty conferring upon the EACJ the jurisdiction to interpret the constitutions of partner states….

Morgan Stanley Sounds Alarm on US Dollar’s Dominance — Says Crypto Could Significantly Alter Currency Landscape

U.S. monetary policies, economic sanctions prompt alternatives to greenback

REGIONAL BLOCS EXPRESS INTEREST IN USING THEIR OWN LOCAL CURRENCIES FOR TRADE INVOICING, SETTLEMENTS
CryptoRank, Jan 21, 2024 – ….Meanwhile, “the European Union is actively working to bolster the euro’s role in international trade, aiming to provide a viable alternative to the dollar” and “China is advancing the yuan in international trade,” the director detailed.
The Morgan Stanley executive director further explained that inter-governmental organizations such as the BRICS economic bloc (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa), the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), and the Eurasian Economic Union “are also expressing interest in using local currencies for trade invoicing and settlements.”

EUROPEAN UNION:

Celebrations not entirely justified as EU turns 30

Socialist central control ‘naturally enough strangled competitiveness and innovation’

Farmers Weekly (NZ), Jan 8, 2024 – There is little evidence political and currency union, administered by a massive bureaucracy in Brussels, has actually delivered the economic growth envisaged by Delors in the early 1990s.
A EUROPE INCREASINGLY DISTANT FROM THE ART OF JEAN MONNET
THE ART ‘TO TRANSFORM CRISES INTO OPPORTUNITIES FOR GREATER INTEGRATION’
BreakingLatestNews, Jan 8, 2024 – The European Union has overcome the crises triggered by the pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine well,…but now it seems to have lost its compass, forgetting the art of Jean Monnet, founding father of a united Europe, to transform crises into opportunities for greater integration. Internally, the national-populist forces working against the European Green Deal are growing stronger…

THE ‘NEW MERCANTILISM’

US and Europe Look to Seize $300 Billion in Frozen Russian Assets to Fund Ukraine

‘So there’s a mercantilist issue here’

The Messenger, Jan 6, 2024 – The risk for Western policymakers is the message it would send to other international investors who park cash in the West. If they fear that their funds could be seized if their countries fall on the wrong side of the West, they might move their deposits elsewhere—to China, for example….
“It will undermine the confidence of other countries in the United States as well as in the EU as economic guarantors,” Dimtry Peskov, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s chief spokesman, told reporters in Moscow in December. “Therefore, such actions are fraught with very, very serious consequences.”

North Americanism Turns 30

NAFTA, USMCA HAVE DRAMATICALLY RESHAPED MEXICO

‘WHY NOT THE FREE MOVEMENT OF THE PEOPLE WHO MAKE THOSE GOODS?’
Financial Post, Jan 5, 2024 – NAFTA—the North American Free Trade Agreement, relaunched in 2020 as the decidedly less catchy U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA—came into effect 30 years ago this week, on Jan. 1, 1994….
NAFTA left both admirers and detractors across the continent…. U.S. discontents lamented the loss of American manufacturing jobs to factories on the Mexican side of the border….
The NAFTA talks also included a showdown between Salinas and former U.S. President George H.W. Bush about whether the deal could increase permissions for legal migration. “You want the free movement of all goods, but why not the free movement of the people who make those goods?” Salinas recounted challenging.

VIDEO: GLOBAL SHAKEDOWN (2015)