ARAB GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL:

A Mercantile Middle East

Should ‘implement the GCC Common Market’; integration of non-GCC Middle East nations

International Monetary Fund, Sep 2023 (Guest opinion: Nasser Saidi, Aathira Prasad) – Greater integration of non-GCC Middle East nations with the GCC will lead to more intraregional trade and greater global integration (via the GCC’s existing global linkages and participation in global value chains). With the growing global economic integration of the GCC nations and their concerted effort in supporting the region’s other nations (via increased trade and investment deals with Egypt and Iraq, for example), they can be a conduit for greater integration of the rest of the region into world trade.

‘Zionism now means normalization, integration’

‘Integration with the Arab world’?

The Jewish Star, Aug 30, 2023 – Israel’s dreams of peace and integration with the Arab world were challenged by the Arab goal of destroying Israel…. Nonetheless, the Abraham Accords are a hopeful sign. They showed that peace with much of the Arab world was possible in spite of the Palestinians’ traditional “veto” on such agreements. Zionism’s next objective should be full integration into the Middle East. While this might have seemed like a fantasy just a few years ago, today it seems like a very real possibility.

MAKING SAARC DYNAMIC AGAIN: IS IT POSSIBLE?
ETV Bharat, Aug 30, 2023 – Nepal Foreign Minister NP Saud has said an informal meeting of SAARC foreign ministers will be held on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session next month. So, will it be possible to revive an organization that has been lying defunct since the 2016 terror attack on an Indian Army camp in Uri from Pakistani soil?

A Common BRICS Currency Is Sometime Away, But We Do Know Its Name

R5 signifies BRICS members’ currencies:
Renminbi, Ruble, Rupee, Real, Rand

By Chris Devonshire-Ellis, Silk Road Briefing, Aug 23, 2023 –
….Rather than a common currency, the initial stage, which is already occurring, is to increase the trade use of their respective currencies….
The second step in liberalising BRICS trade from US dollar and euro use is the introduction of sovereign digital currencies….
THE BRICS SPREAD OF DIGITAL CURRENCY USE
A little understood aspect of the BRICS in the West is that while much has been made of the disparate nature of the five nations, they are all the lead members of their respective free trade groups. This includes China with RCEP, India with SAARC, Russia with the EAEU and CIS, Brazil with Mercosur, and South Africa with the SAEU.
Then there is the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) of which China, India and Russia are all full members. Collectively, these trade organisations include, apart from the BRICS, another 64 countries. Digital technologies from BRICS are sure to filter down to enable this huge, global network of countries, all of whom can bypass the SWIFT network….
I do not expect to see any meaningful debate concerning the creation of an Eastern version of the EU anytime soon – partially because there already is one in the form of ASEAN. But when ASEAN creates a Central Bank and a common currency, one can be sure that the BRICS and its numerous allies will likely not be far behind.
Chris Devonshire-Ellis is the Chairman of Dezan Shira & Associates.

CHINA BECOMES THE LARGEST BUYER OF GOLD AHEAD OF BRICS SUMMIT

Watcher.Guru, Aug 8, 2023 – The BRICS members are accumulating massive amounts of gold in their reserves to challenge the U.S. dollar. The Central Banks from Russia, India, and China are on a gold buying spree in FY 22-23 and FY 23-24. The three countries are among the top buyers of gold this year and they are steadily purchasing the precious metal.

‘NORTH AMERICAN MINDSET’:

George W. Bush Institute, NASCO push for single apprenticeship credential program for continental workforce

‘To support…worker movement across borders’

‘FIRST STEP TO MULTINATIONAL ALIGNMENT FOR APPRENTICESHIPS’

BOLSTERING NORTH AMERICA’S COMPETITIVENESS

The George W. Bush Institute-SMU Economic Growth Initiative, August 2023
Recognizing that harmonization and consistency across borders is essential to efficiency and competitiveness, North American businesses already standardize and streamline their labor practices. A commitment by the three governments to create a unified apprenticeship program would build confidence and attract private sector investment toward a public-private partnership which is necessary to implement the following recommendations:

• The United States, Canada, and Mexico should pilot adopting a single credential within a given industry.• Labor and economic agencies at the Federal and state/provincial levels should partner with private sector and labor interests to inform the creation of this credential.• This pilot credential should be tested with one or more businesses currently hiring and operating in all three countries.• This pilot should lead to the development of a trilateral, North American apprenticeship program. The opportunity to convene the United States Office of Apprenticeships, Mexico’s National College of Technical Professional Education (CONALEP), and Canada’s Excellence in Manufacturing Consortium (EMC) around a single credential within a given industry is the first step to multinational alignment for apprenticeships.

REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE – ‘NORTH AMERICAN HIGHWAY’ RESURFACING:

Ted Cruz legislation passes Senate, would name ‘Ports-to-Plains Corridor’ as ‘Interstate 27’

The Katy News, August 9, 2022 – ….In 2022, Sen. Cruz successfully included language in the fiscal year (FY) 2022 appropriations legislation to designate the portion of the Ports-to-Plains Corridor from Laredo, Texas, to Raton, New Mexico, as a future Interstate route. This was an important step toward adding the route to the U.S. Interstate System. Though the language passed into law in 2022 will add key parts of the Ports-to-Plains Corridor to the Interstate System, it did not give the route an official future Interstate route number.
His latest legislation, which passed out of the Senate in July 2023, would name the Ports-to-Plains Corridor “Interstate 27.”

EURASIAN UNION:

Armenia, Eurasia And The Evasion Of Western Sanctions To Iran And Russia – OpEd

Eurasia Review, Aug 8, 2023 – Armenia is one of the few democracies in Eurasia; nevertheless, it is a member of Russian-led CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organization) and EEU (Eurasian Economic Union) that bring together authoritarian regimes….
At least five Eurasian countries – Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Georgia – are assisting Russia in the evasion of Western sanctions imposed after the invasion of Ukraine and of these Armenia is the most important hub. While the first four countries are members of the Russian-led CSTO and EEU the surprise is Georgia which has become more pro-Russia under Ivanishvili’s de facto state capture.
Armenia’s three-decade old experience assisting Iran to evade Western sanctions is now being used to assist Russia to evade sanctions which are just as severe against Moscow. Iran, Russia, and China have formed an anti-Western alliance with the goal of replacing what they describe as the US-led unipolar with a multipolar world.

SE ASIA:

ASEAN Poised to Be World’s Fourth-Largest Economy in 2030

Jakarta Globe, Aug 8, 2023 – An economic integration brief released by ASEAN last month predicted that the Southeast Asian bloc was on track to be in the world’s top four largest economies, just behind the US, China, and India.

MIDDLE EAST and
NORTH AFRICA:

Could a regional bloc work in the MENA or is it a fool’s errand?

Atlantic Council, Aug 8, 2023 – The Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) geopolitical landscape, which is enriched yet often mired by its diversity, is also steeped in historical complexities—rampant violence, state failures, unsuccessful attempts at democratization, and a surge in extremism and potent non-state actors—and ongoing rivalries….
One viable proposition is the establishment of a regional bloc—akin to the Organization of American States (OAS) or the African Union (AU)—that focuses on shared challenges and common interests. This idea proposes expanding beyond the current sub-regional cooperation bodies, such as the Arab League, Arab Maghreb Union, Gulf Council Cooperation, and the Quartet Cooperation Council.

‘MADE IN NORTH AMERICA’:

Nearshoring tide growing in Mexico

‘For North American manufacturers looking for profitable alternatives to China closer to home, Mexico is the obvious choice’

The Tube and Pipe Journal, July 29, 2023 – Before 2020, anyone suggesting to a manufacturer’s board of directors that they ditch China for Mexico would likely have been shown the door, possibly to the sounds of laughter.
No one’s laughing now….
COVID-19 created such worldwide shipping delays that even companies long entrenched with a make-it-in-China mindset began formulating what’s come to be known as nearshoring—the movement of suppliers much closer to the North American OEMs they support.
Diplomatic and trade tensions between the U.S. and China have only quickened businesses’ relocation to other nations ready with the necessary workforces and technology. Vietnam and India have emerged as key players here, but for North American manufacturers looking for profitable alternatives to China closer to home, Mexico is the obvious choice.
MEXICO ECONOMIC GROWTH TOPS FORECASTS ON SERVICES AND EXPORTS
Yahoo! Finance, July 31, 2023 – Mexico’s economy grew more than expected in the second quarter as private consumption remains robust and the country benefits from strong exports to the US, its largest trading partner.

REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE:

Senate agrees to fast-track permitting for border bridges after push from Cruz, TX reps

San Antonio Express-News, July 28, 2023

Ted Cruz pushes resurfaced ‘North American Highway’

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX) promotes “I-27, Ports-to-Plains interstate that will flow from Laredo all the way up to Canada.”

Senator Ted Cruz visited Laredo’s World Trade Bridge on Monday, July 24 to participate in a roundtable with Rep. Henry Cuellar, Laredo Mayor Dr. Victor Trevino and other local, state and national leaders addressing the progress made in expediting approval of international bridge projects in South Texas and discussing what comes next….
“Being the No. 1 port of entry in the country, this is very important to us,” Trevino said. “It can compete with the global forces and compete at a world stage. These expansions are important so that we are less dependent on unstable markets and competing interests around the world. It also creates more American jobs and strengthens our ties with Mexico and our continent to benefit from this trade and security.”….
Cruz cited his past experience with Cuellar working on the I-27 Ports-to-Plains Corridor as evidence of what can be achieved when attacking an issue from both sides.
“Henry and I work together on a lot of matters. Henry and I worked hand-in-hand on passing the legislation to authorize I-27, the Ports-to-Plains interstate that will flow from Laredo all the way up to Canada,” he said.

ASEAN:

Southeast Asia moves closer to economic unity with new regional payments system

CNBC, July 30, 2023 – A new regional cross-border payment system recently implemented by Southeast Asian nations could deepen financial integration among participants, bringing the ASEAN bloc closer to its goal of economic cohesion.
The program, which allows residents to pay for goods and services in local currencies using a QR code, is now active in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore. The Philippines is expected to join soon.
That’s according to each country’s respective central bank.

NEW MERCANTILISM’:

Ukraine left in limbo

RESULT OF TUG-OF-WAR BETWEEN EU, EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION

How did Ukraine end up here, stuck between a rock and hard place?

bne IntelliNews, July 12, 2023 – Ukraine now finds itself in a very difficult position; it is cut off from the Russian markets and investment money, previously both very important, but has not integrated into the EU markets and has little prosect of joining the EU for years, if not decades. (Ask Turkey.)
The same is true with security. Relations with Russia decayed to the point Ukraine is at war with Russia. But again, it is not integrated with the rest of Europe’s security apparatus, and currently has no prospect of joining Nato at any time in the future….
Ukraine’s trade limbo is a result of the tug-of-war that broke out between the EU and Russia, when the Kremlin was trying to set up the Customs Union that eventually became the Eurasian Economic Union….

USMCA – ‘MADE IN NORTH AMERICA’:

‘Three years after new North American trade pact, optimism is rising’

It’s just that beneficiaries have so far been mostly in Mexico

USMCA CREATED DUTY-FREE REGIONAL BLOC TO COMPETE WITH EU AND CHINA; ACTUALLY LEFT IN PLACE MUCH OF NAFTA; TRADE GAP WITH MEXICO WIDENING.
Chattanooga Times Free Press | Associated Press, July 8, 2023 – Despite Trump’s insistence that the USMCA would pull more manufacturing back to the United States, the gap between what America sells and what it buys from Mexico keeps widening: It has surged from the $64 billion gap in 2016 that so irritated Trump to a record $139 billion last year.
For all of Trump’s bombast, the USMCA actually left in place much of the pact it replaced. NAFTA erased most of the import taxes that the United States, Mexico and Canada imposed on each other’s goods. It created a duty-free regional bloc meant to compete with the European Union and China. That structure remains mostly in place.
“It’s still pretty much the same as NAFTA.”

Russia confirms BRICS will create a gold-backed currency

Kitco, July 7, 2023 – Friday, according to state-run RT, the Russian government has confirmed that Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, also known as BRICS nations, will introduce a new trading currency backed by gold. The official announcement is expected to be made during the BRICS summit in August in South Africa.

Japan, ASEAN justice chiefs vow to uphold rule of law amid China rise

Kyodo News (Japan), July 6, 2023 – Justice ministers from Japan and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations pledged Thursday to cooperate in promoting the rule of law amid China’s increasing maritime assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific region….
In recent years, Japan has been trying to boost relations with ASEAN as some of its members have become more vigilant against China’s growing military presence in the East and South China seas.

USMCA – ‘MADE IN NORTH AMERICA‘:

Opinion: ‘Why America Needs to Embrace Mexico As Its New Manufacturing Hub’

‘For a fraction of what it would cost on U.S. soil‘

By Robert Morcos , Founder and CEO, Social Mobile – Newsweek, July 3, 2023 – ….The reality is that for the U.S. to decouple from China, it needs access to a manufacturing hub with close geographic proximity, affordable skilled labor and solid free-trade agreements: It needs Mexico….It’s the manufacturing and assembly of smart products that are widely outsourced to Asia. A strategic partnership with Mexico would allow the U.S. to increase its domestic design and engineering of semiconductors while funneling the lines of assembly and manufacturing south of the border, for a fraction of what it would cost on U.S. soil.
NEARSHORING IS BOOSTING SUPPLY CHAIN RESILIENCE
MEXICO HAS EMERGED AS THE TOP U.S. IMPORTER, SURPASSING CHINA IN MANUFACTURING AND SUPPLY CHAINS
Commercial Research, July 4, 2023 – The demand for nearshoring has fueled significant activity along the U.S.-Mexico border, particularly in the Laredo, Texas, border gateway.

Mexico’s moment in the sun

Nearshoring is pushing FDI in Mexico to record heights

fDi Intelligence, June 22, 2023 –
“This is Mexico’s geopolitical moment,” Kenneth Smith Ramos, the country’s former chief negotiator for the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and partner at legal firm Agon tells fDi. “We are seeing a perfect storm of huge conflicts internationally, such as the war in Ukraine and the US–China trade war, that has created a unique window for Mexico to increase investments and modernise its economy.”….
Mexico has also seen a rise in FDI [foreign direct investment] from Chinese and other Asian corporations looking to circumvent tariffs and become more integrated into the North American market.
MEXICO IS POISED TO RIDE THE NEARSHORING WAVE
Morgan Stanley, June 21, 2023 – As U.S. companies increasingly look to their southern neighbor to bolster their supply and value chains, it is likely to boost Mexico’s GDP growth as investment surges, providing new opportunities for companies and investors alike.
“If U.S. manufacturing is to be less dependent on China, we think the path will be via Mexico,” says Morgan Stanley Research equity analyst Nikolaj Lippmann. “Nearshoring is expected to be a long and sustained race that could help build new ecosystems in Mexico’s existing manufacturing hubs.”
NEARSHORING LEADS TO INBOUND BOOST FROM MECIXO, CANADA
Multichannel Merchant, June 21, 2023 – Mexico and Canada are seeing an increase in manufacturing and shipping to the U.S. as nearshoring takes hold in the face of uncertainty over trade with China…. According to a joint supply chain stability index from management consulting firm KPMG and the Association of Supply Chain Management (ASCM), nearshoring meant the volume of imported freight from Mexico to the U.S. in Q1 exceeded that of China by 15%. The volume from Canada was 5% higher as “China plus one” takes a firm hold.
NPPC COMMENTS ON PROPOSED ‘PRODUCT OF USA’ LABELING RULE
PorkBusiness, June 19, 2023 – The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) filed comments asking the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) to scrap or rewrite a proposed rule on labeling meat “Product of USA.”
Under the proposal, FSIS only would allow that label claim for meat from animals born, raised, harvested and processed in the U.S…. Although billed as ‘voluntary,’ the new rule would have the same effect as being mandatory since it creates a strong incentive for producers to prefer domestic animals to imported ones to use the “Product of USA” claim, NPPC says.

SE ASIA – ASEAN:

ASEAN Planning First Joint Military Drills With Eye on China

VOA, June 22, 2023 – Amid regional tensions with China, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations is planning its first joint military drill, finalizing on Thursday the location in Indonesia’s South Natuna Sea, according to the Indonesian military….
The site was moved because several ASEAN member nations are in territorial disputes with China over the resource-rich South China Sea, according to Reuters.

HOW TO UPGRADE ASEAN’S INFRASTRUCTURE AS MORE GLOBAL BUSINESSES TURN TO THE REGION
Electric grid, transportation, ‘mobility of talent across borders’
South China Morning Post, June 22, 2023 – According to surveys, international investors see efficient logistics and infrastructure connectivity as among the most important measures to facilitate more investment in Asean.
ASEAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION AT THE CROSSROADS
Fundamentals of any region’s economic integration: free trade, customs union, common market, economic union, political union
Khmer Times, June 19, 2023 – One of the greatest milestones in the efforts towards economic integration of the region has been Asean Trade Repository (ATR). The ATR provides a unique single window opening to all data related to trade and commerce of Asean member states….
“Asean Trade Repository emanated from the Asean Free Trade Agreement. The fundamentals of economic integration in any region are free trade, customs union, common market, economic union and political union.”

EURASIAN ECONOMIC UNION, IRAN:

Russia to attach Iran to its Eurasian Economic Union

Euractiv, June 18, 2023 – A free trade zone agreement between Iran, Russia and several countries that cover the vast Eurasian region spreading from the borders of Eastern Europe to Western China is possible by the end of the year, Russia’s TASS news agency reported on Monday (19 June).
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk told the state TASS agency in an interview that talks between the Eurasian Economic Union – which comprises Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Russia – and Iran are in their final stages.

NEW MERCANTILISM:

Why Are We in Ukraine?

Settlement would need to permit Ukraine economic relations with both Eurasian Union and European Union

Harper’s Magazine, from June 2023 issue – The association agreement, which eventually called for the “gradual convergence on foreign and security matters with the aim of Ukraine’s ever deeper involvement in the European security area,” would have precluded Ukraine from joining Moscow’s planned Eurasian Economic Union—a high priority for the Kremlin—while drawing Ukraine closer to the West….
A peace settlement would need to permit Ukraine simultaneously to conduct close economic relations with the Eurasian Economic Union and with the European Union (to allow for this arrangement, Brussels would need to adjust its rules). Most important of all—given that the specter of Ukraine’s NATO membership was the precipitating cause of the war—Kyiv would need to forswear membership and accept permanent neutrality.

ARAB LEAGUE:

Arab nations praise China’s Uyghur policies: Society is ‘harmonious,’ religion free

Arab League nations have long endorsed China’s repression of Uyghurs, other Muslim minorities
Radio Free Asia, June 23, 2023 – The Arab League’s delegation to Xinjiang comprised 34 members from 16 countries, including Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
“The Xinjiang they saw was completely different from the portrayals of Western Media, [and] discourses like so-called ‘genocide’ and ‘religious repression’ are complete lies,” the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.
Arab nations have long endorsed China’s repression of Uyghurs and other Muslim minorities. Non-Arab Muslim countries, meanwhile, have a more mixed record in speaking out for Uyghurs. HOW ISRAEL LOST THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR
Syria resumes Arab League membership
Jewish News Syndicate, June 19, 2023 – Bashar Assad’s survival turns Iran into Israel’s next-door neighbor, exercising a growing influence on the rebuilding of Syria’s armed forces. It allows for land corridors through Iraq and (via direct flights from Iran) an air bridge that can be used to equip Lebanese Hezbollah’s heavy missiles with precision guidance kits, making them far more accurate. It enables Shi’ite militias sponsored by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps to mount large-scale campaigns to smuggle weapons (and drugs) into Jordan, from where they can be smuggled to Palestinian groups in Judea and Samaria….
Arab states that supported efforts to topple the president in the past are gradually moving these days, at varying speeds, towards rapprochement and normalization of relations, such as resuming Syria’s membership of the Arab League.
IS ISIS PREPARING TO EXPLOIT EUROPE’S OPEN BORDERS?
Spectator (UK), June 18, 2023 – The route used by the Islamic State is from Syria and Afghanistan, coming through Turkey and then heading for Germany or Sweden because, de Montbrial said, these countries ‘are considered to be the most Islamic in terms of numbers’. In his opinion, the ease with which the Islamic State has been able to infiltrate its fighters into Europe is down to the ‘absolutely tragic’ decision of Angela Merkel in 2015 to thrown open Europe’s borders to more than a million migrants and refugees.
AFGHANISTAN: THE WAR ISN’T OVER: THE PANJSHIR UPRISING AGAINST THE TALIBAN
TheOWP, June 18, 2023 – Since the last American soldier left the U.S. base in Afghanistan, the Taliban have been celebrating the creation of their new government. But away from the media spotlight, the war continues. The Taliban is fighting two wars, crisscrossing Afghanistan and still ongoing in the U.S. Army’s absence. The first is against the I.S.K., which is the Afghan piece of I.S.I.S. This is the group guilty of sending their men packed with explosives into Kabul airport as desperate people were trying to board the last available flights out of the country. The second is against the opposition represented by the Afghanistan National Resistance Front (N.R.F.), based in the Panjshir region….

ARAB GULF – GCC:

Iran fears Israel-Arab security integration more than normalization

‘Joint air defense system’ part of new regional architecture’
Stimson, June 21, 2023 – The U.S. now bills itself as a  ‘‘security integrator” coordinating among Gulf Cooperation Council members (GCC) and Israel….
In this context, the process of normalizing Israel’s relations with the Persian Gulf Arabs is meant to increase regional integration to the detriment of Iran. The establishment of a ‘‘joint air defense system’’ — Middle East Air Defense or MEAD — is one goal of this convergence. Former Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid has dubbed this a ‘‘new regional architecture’’ whose main objective is to deter Iran and its proxy forces.

AFRICAN UNION:

India PM Modi proposes G20 membership for African Union

Times of India, June 17, 2023 – …Prime Minister Narendra Modi has written to the leaders of the G20 nations, proposing that the African Union be given full membership of the grouping at its upcoming summit in New Delhi.

We want political federation, Kenyans tell EAC legal team

PRESIDENT RUTO CALLS FOR BORDERLESS EAC, SIMILAR TO EUROPEAN UNION
The East African, June 3, 20203 – The 20-day national consultations for drafting the constitution for the proposed East African Community (EAC) Political Confederation concluded in Kenya with majority of Kenyans calling for a direct move to a political federation….
The European Union is currently in a monetary union with also some characteristics of a political union…. President Ruto called for a borderless EAC, similar to the EU, sentiments that were shared across the country…. After Kenya, Tanzania is the next destination for the committee of experts followed by Rwanda.

FROM THE ARCHIVES – 2012:

WHY ARE JEFF MILLER, OTHERS IN CONGRESS, SENATE PROMOTING THE POLITICAL FEDERATION OF EAST AFRICA?

‘MADE IN NORTH AMERICA’ – ‘NEARSHORING’ TO MEXICO:

Bank of Mexico survey shows nearshoring impact, prospects

Nearshoring in Mexico well underway, will take time for strongest effects

Mexico News Daily, June 16, 2023 – In the survey, 32.9% of respondents said their companies planned to increase investment in Mexico in the future, while 42.5% had held internal conversations about how they could benefit from nearshoring.
The trend has been encouraged by policymakers in both Mexico and the United States, particularly in the wake of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Free Trade Agreement (USMCA), which, like NAFTA, exempts agricultural and manufactured goods made in any of the three USMCA countries from tariffs that meet origin of materials requirements….
NEARSHORING ACCELERATES MEXICO’S THRIVING MEDICAL DEVICE INDUSTRY
Mexico News Daily, June 14, 2023 – Johnson & Johnson, Medtronic, GE HealthCare, Philips and Kimberly-Clark. They are just a few of the more than 2,000 companies that manufacture medical devices in Mexico, the world’s leading supplier of such equipment to the United States.
Foreign investment in the sector – measured in the billions of dollars over the past 15 years – is significant for the same reasons that manufacturing any type of product in Mexico is potentially a good idea: proximity to the United States, the presence of an educated and motivated workforce, competitive labor costs and low or tariff-free trade with the U.S. and Canada.
SURVEY: NEARLY THREE QUARTERS OF U.S. SMBs PLAN TO SHIFT THEIR SUPPLIERS FROM OVERSEAS TO NORTH AMERICA
NEARSHORING TREND GAINS STEAM
Supply Chain Quarterly, June 12, 2023 – Nearly three quarters (74%) of U.S. small and midsize businesses (SMBs) plan to shift “most or all” of their suppliers to North America as the nearshoring trend gains steam, according to a poll of 300 supply chain managers….
NORTH AMERICAN RAIL SUPPLY AND THE GLOBAL SUPPLY RISK: WHY WE SHOULD BE CONCERNED
Railway Age, June 16, 2023 – In 2005, Oliver Wyman published a report titled “Reducing Rail Component Supply Costs and Risks Through Global Sourcing” that advocated global sourcing to drive down costs and reduce supply chain risk. Since this report was released, just the opposite has happened. The Russia/Ukraine war has curtailed supply from Russia, and now with trade tensions with China, reliance on Chinese suppliers indeed comes with elevated risk. Meanwhile, global sourcing negatively impacted the North American rail component supply base, causing company consolidation and closures….As shared previously, I am a free-market capitalist who believes in the benefits of global trade, but in the case of rail supply, I’m not impressed by the overall impact that global sourcing has had on the freight rail industry. I share my articles to educate the industry on the rail component supply chain in hopes that better decisions will be made to ensure the future growth and prosperity of the North American freight rail industry.

EURASIAN UNION:

The Neocolonial System Has Ceased To Exist, Putin Tells SPIEF

‘The multipolar world order is being reinforced. And this process is inevitable’

Executive Intelligence Review, June 16, 2023 – Speaking at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) (in Russian) on June 16, President Vladimir Putin…presented a very upbeat picture of the development of the economy in spite of, or even as a result of, the sanctions imposed by the U.S. and its allies….
“Today, about 90% of settlements with the countries of the Eurasian Economic Union are in rubles, and more than 80% of settlements with China are in rubles and yuan,” Putin said. “This means that the ugly international system, which was neocolonial in nature, has ceased to exist. Meanwhile the multipolar world order is being reinforced. And this process is inevitable.”
ASIAN ECONOMIC HEFT KEEPS RUSSIA’S ECONOMY AFLOAT
Eurasia Review, June 12, 2023 – Sanctions against Moscow were intended, as one US National Security Council official put it, as a form of economic ‘shock and awe’. Yet after a brief financial crisis, Russia rerouted much of its trade towards Asian economies and weathered the initial sanctions onslaught. Asian economies have acted as alternative destinations for Russian exports as well as new sources of imports. Trade links with China, India, Turkey, Gulf states and Central Asian countries have buoyed the Russian economy…. Russia’s trading partners in the Eurasian Economic Union have also played a role in bypassing technology export restrictions.

SOUTH ASIA:

BIMSTEC to focus on connectivity; to adopt Bangkok vision 2030 at next summit

REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE: Roads, railway, civil aviation, maritime transport and multi-modular

The Hindu, June 15, 2023 – The grouping comprises Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. In 2022, the BIMSTEC charter was adopted which lays the foundation for it to function as a full-fledged organisation….
This 10-year master plan covers roads, railway, civil aviation, maritime transport and multi-modular infrastructure, he stated, adding that the agreement on maritime transport cooperation that was agreed recently had become a milestone as it would not only promote movement of people and goods between member-states as well as open up new opportunities for Blue economy.

NEW REGIONAL MERCANTILISM – ‘MADE IN EUROPE’:

NZIA: act now or Europe’s wind turbines will be made in China

WindEurope CEO wants Europeans’ subsidy to expand ‘green supply chains’

WindEurope, June 14, 2023 – “Europe wants a green industrial policy. It wants renewables to be made in Europe. But it’s failing on the policies that will actually deliver that. The Net-Zero Industry Act needs beefing up. Public money has to support the expansion of green supply chains, as it does elsewhere in the world. Otherwise the EU Green Deal will be manufactured outside of Europe, and Europe will simply swap its dependency on Russian gas for one on Chinese clean energy equipment. Our existing green supply chains bring jobs, growth and investment to thousands of communities. We’ve got to wake up and preserve that AND build on it. NZIA is our chance. We mustn’t blow it”, says WindEurope CEO Giles Dickson.

‘NEW MERCANTILISM’ and REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE:

Pakistan revives talks on pipeline project to import gas via Afghanistan

Moscow may consider gas exports via the TAPI pipeline in shift from Europe

Upstream, June 13, 2023 – The Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (Tapi) natural gas pipeline project, in discussion since the early 1990s, aims to export gas from Turkmenistan, which has the second-largest gas reserves in the former Soviet Union, after Russia…. Moscow may consider gas exports via the Tapi pipeline a viable mid-term option “to counterbalance the country’s growing dependence on China as a key market after the loss of Europe” last year….
CHINA AND RUSSIA PREPARING TO PUSH THE UNITED STATES & EUROPEAN UNION OUT OF CENTRAL ASIA
Silk Road Briefing, June 12, 2023 – The recent China-Central Asia summit in Xi’an has given plenty of reasons to pay attention to the role and status of Russia in the region. The new era proclaimed by Xi Jinping in China’s relations with the states of the region Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan were perceived by many, especially in the West, as Beijing’s taking the main role of influential power in the region from Moscow….
Concerning political influence, a highlight for Moscow here in the future is the reduction of the US geopolitical role in the region as a result of Washington’s commitment and financing of the Ukraine conflict. Because of this, China and Russia, each in its own time, will fill the void left by the withdrawal of Americans and Europeans from the region.

Revival of TAPI Pipeline Project Brings Serious Geopolitical Implications for Russia

PROJECT COULD NOW SPURN WEST, BENEFIT EURASIAN UNION

Eurasia Daily Monitor, June 6, 2023 – Moscow is interested in participating in the TAPI [Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India] pipeline project in an effort to divert its energy exports away from Europe toward Asia. In this, Turkmenistan has the potential to be a transit hub for Russian energy and goods exported to South and Central Asia. In truth, as one expert has pointed out, Ashgabat is unwilling to export gas to Turkey and further to Europe if that would endanger its partnership with Moscow: “Ashgabat is clearly coming down on the side of Russia and spurning opportunities to move its gas in a Western direction. It has chosen to move towards its authoritarian brothers-in-arms, Russia and Iran” (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, February 27)….

COMMON CURRENCY FOR BRICS

19 countries seek to form alliance with Russia
JoyNews (Ghana), June 5, 2023

UKRAINE AND THE WESTERN BALKANS MIGHT HAVE TO WAIT FOR THEIR EU DREAMS
RadioFreeEurope, RadioLiberty, June 5, 2023 – For Ukraine, this is understandably all overshadowed by the catastrophic war. No one I spoke to or listened to in Bratislava expects a quick end to the conflict. Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavsky admitted that Prague is expecting Russia to present a threat to Europe for decades, and the former U.S. secretary of defense, Mark Esper, echoed that, adding that there isn’t much optimism when it comes to the Kremlin even “after Putin.”

‘NEW MERCANTILISM’ – REGIONAL PROTECTIONISM:

IMF: The Rise of Discriminatory Regionalism

DESIGNED TO INCREASE BARRIERS TO TRADE WITH NONMEMBERS

‘As rising geopolitical tensions chip away at globalization, will a more fragmented world mean stronger regional pacts?’
International Monetary Fund, June 2023 – What could emerge is a more discriminatory regionalism designed to increase barriers to trade with nonmembers rather than reduce them with members….
Economist Michele Ruta says the trend toward strengthening ties with friends and loosening them with non-friends is making regional trade less about integration and more about discrimination.